The Numbers Don't Lie: This Is the Only Denim Trend More Popular Than Baggy Jeans Right Now

As a fashion editor, I utilize a lot of different resources for my articles. Sometimes I'll ask experts for advice, like I did with my recent guide to buying vintage women's watches. Other times, I pore over runway shows for visual examples to support my latest trend theories. Today, I'm making use of another type of tool: data. To get statistical insights in the fashion industry, there's no one better to tap than Madé Lapuerta, the founder of the popular Instagram account Data, But Make It Fashion. Clearly, Old Navy agrees, as the brand has partnered with Lapuerta on a new denim analysis.

Digging into Google search traffic and thousands of online posts, Lapuerta found that slim jeans are 43% more popular this month compared to last month. Baggy jeans trailed behind but were still up 22%. Skinny jeans and barrel jeans took third and fourth place, according to her report.

In an interview, Lapuerta explained her methodology. "Most analyses I conduct and post on Data, But Make it Fashion revolve around scraping and analyzing as much public data as I can get my hands on," Lapuerta told Who What Wear. "For the Old Navy denim report, this included pulling online posts that mention 'denim' and denim styles such as 'skinny jeans' or 'barrel jeans,' and analyzing their monthly volume and average sentiment (how positive or negative each post or article is). I also included Google search traffic data. The combination of these metrics is important as it’s not enough to report on just how much more people are searching or talking about a trend, but also to correct for the tone in which they’re speaking about it. For instance, just because the number of posts mentioning skinny jeans increases doesn’t mean the popularity of skinny jeans increases, as all the posts could be negative. In this case, however, people were speaking about skinny jeans quite positively, which was interesting to see." Scroll down to read the rest of our Q&A.

Your data shows that both slim and baggy jeans are trending right now. Why do you think that is?

It’s really interesting to see two conflicting trends rising in popularity at once, and in similar magnitudes. It’s possible that consumers genuinely love both. As Old Navy reported, the majority (74% of consumers) have two to three denim styles in their rotation. So, consumers can love skinny jeans in certain scenarios, like tucked into knee-high boots, and baggy jeans in others, like paired with a casual t-shirt and a pair of Uggs.

Or, if that’s not the case—if it’s a distinct population of consumers that love skinny jeans over baggy jeans, and vice versa—it’s also possible that consumers, in general, are becoming excited about denim as we head into fall. Ultimately, with so many different styles rising in popularity at once, it’s clear that the hype for denim is alive and well, regardless of which specific silhouette you’re excited about.

Do you have any insights on the most popular shoe styles people wear with different types of jeans for fall?

I haven’t yet looked at shoe trends this season or how they relate to each style of jean. But one thing I will say is that as long as I’ve been analyzing fashion trends on Data, But Make it Fashion, there is one shoe that consistently rises in popularity again each fall: the mini Ugg boot. I could be wrong, but I would not be surprised to see mini Uggs tucked under baggy or boot-cut jeans yet again this fall. I'm personally a fan.

Generally speaking, where do you think people get their denim inspiration from? Has that evolved in the years since you started your IG account?

Over the past year, it’s been quite interesting to see how nostalgia has become such a powerful force and influence on fashion trends. So many trend resurgences lately—from Gucci belts to bandage dresses—are rooted in people looking back and revisiting trends and styles we used to love. And this applies to denim trends, too. I think that’s why skinny jeans are quite consistently popular, even though people love to hate them. If we keep looking back at '90s and 2000s style as inspiration, why would skinny jeans not be trending? The same goes for baggy jeans. They were at the height of their popularity in the '80s, '90s, and 2000s, and have now become quite popular among young consumers. This explains why retailers like Old Navy are introducing more slouchy styles. They are delivering what consumers want.

Inspired By the Data, Shop My Favorite Slim Jeans for Fall